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army1987 comments on Right for the Wrong Reasons - Less Wrong
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That suggests a question.
If I flip a fair coin, and it comes up heads, what is the probability of that coin flip, which I already made, having instead been tails? (Approximately) 0, because we've already seen that the coin didn't come up tails, or (approximately) 50%, because it's a fair coin and we have no way of knowing the outcome in advance?
As Jaynes suggested, it's best to view all probabilities as conditional. P(coin came up heads | what i know now) = 1, P(coin came up heads | what i knew before flipping it) = 0.5.