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dclayh comments on This Failing Earth - Less Wrong
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The best empirical estimate we have for the probability that the Earth will not fail, is the fraction of Earth-like planets around us that have succeeded. (Zero.)
That said, they don't seem to have failed after achieving AI, so I don't know if that really tells us much.
What are you considering "Earth-like planets"? I'm an astronomer and I'm not aware of any (under the usual definition of 0.5-10 Earth masses, with an equilibrium temperature allowing liquid water).
(And I would explain my vote on this post, but doing so in the absence of a request by the poster seems to be a downvotable offense.)
We've located enough planets nearby to infer that there are a large number of planets somewhat nearby that could support life.