I suspect the analysis needed to prove "(it is probable that) x 100 my goal is achieved" is very similar to the one needed to prove that "(it is probable that) x101 my goal is achieved". Because of this, it seems likely that there is a degree of reflection beyond which all evidence gathered will strengthen the probability for all subsequent meta-checks. So it is not a given that such an approach would never terminate.
[Final Update: Back to 'Discussion'; stroked out the initial framing which was misleading.]
[Update: Moved to 'Main'. Also, judging by the comments, it appears that most have misunderstood the puzzle and read way too much into it; user 'Manfred' seems to have got the point.][Note: This little puzzle is my first article. Preliminary feedback suggests some of you might enjoy it while others might find it too obvious, hence the cautious submission to 'Discussion'; will move it to 'Main' if, and only if, it's well-received.]In his recent paper "The Superintelligent Will: Motivation and Instrumental Rationality in Advanced Artificial Agents", Nick Bostrom states:Let us take it on from here.It is tempting to say that a machine can never halt after achieving its goal because it cannot know with full certainty whether it has achieved its goal; it will continually verify, possibly to increasing degrees of certainty, whether it has achieved its goal, but never halt as such.
What if, from a naive goal G, the machine's goal were then redefined as "achieve 'G' with 'p' probability" for some p < 1? It appears this also would not work, given the machine would never be fully certain of being p certain of having achieved G. (and so on...)
Yet one can specify a set of conditions for which a program will terminate, so how is the argument above fallacious?
Solution in ROT13: Va beqre gb unyg fhpu na ntrag qbrfa'g arrq gb *xabj* vg'f c pregnva, vg bayl arrqf gb *or* c pregnva; nf gur pbaqvgvba vf rapbqrq, gur unygvat jvyy or gevttrerq bapr gur ntrag ragref gur fgngr bs c pregnvagl, ertneqyrff bs jurgure vg unf (shyy) xabjyrqtr bs vgf fgngr.