Another monthly installment of the rationality quotes thread. The usual rules apply:
- Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
- Do not quote yourself.
- Do not quote comments or posts from Less Wrong itself or from Overcoming Bias.
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Insufficiently more likely. I've been around ducks many times without that happening to my socks. Log of the likelihood ratio would be close to zero.
You originally were talking about a duck in your closet, which isn't the same as thing as being around ducks.
The discussion reminds me of this, which makes the point that, while corelation is not causation, if there's no corelation, there almost certainly isn't causation.