What are you working on? February 2013

David_Gerard

This is the bimonthly 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question:

What are you working on?

Here are some guidelines:

Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started.
Why this project and not others? Mention reasons why you're doing the project and/or why others should contribute to your project (if applicable).
Talk about your goals for the project.
Any kind of project is fair game: personal improvement, research project, art project, whatever.
Link to your work if it's linkable.

This is the bimonthly 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are here. So here's the question:

What are you working on?

Here are some guidelines:

Focus on projects that you have recently made progress on, not projects that you're thinking about doing but haven't started.
Why this project and not others? Mention reasons why you're doing the project and/or why others should contribute to your project (if applicable).
Talk about your goals for the project.
Any kind of project is fair game: personal improvement, research project, art project, whatever.
Link to your work if it's linkable.

Oh, I see. In that case, when you enter the room, why is her probability estimate different from yours? (Or if it's not, why is yours >90%?)

Different levels of knowledge result in different probabilities... You have more information than she does. Your calculation computes the prior probability of you dying during one round. Her calculation computes the posterior probability of you dying during the whole game, given that you played and that the game has ended. The paradox only arises if one treats probability as an objective thing.

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What are you working on? February 2013

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What are you working on? February 2013

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