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shminux comments on The Martial Art of Rationality - Less Wrong

42 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 22 November 2006 08:00PM

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Comment author: shminux 10 October 2012 10:38:32PM 2 points [-]

I mentioned it only because it seems to have been a unique triumph for Less Wrong.

Why has it been so unique? Surely there are plenty of high-profile predictions one can make using the same Bayesian techniques? (Or one can simply ask gwern, who is apparently well calibrated after a thousand or so recorded predictions.)

Comment author: somervta 11 October 2012 09:28:07PM 0 points [-]

The key here was in applying Bayes, not in being especially calibrated.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 12 October 2012 05:49:53PM 2 points [-]

Well actually I was just wondering about that.

What other claims like 'Amanda Knox is innocent' can we make, in the sense that (a) they're counter common thinking (b) we're pretty sure we're right (c) there's likely to be a resolution in our favour soon?

The Amanda Knox thing was a surprising prediction that came true. More of those would be neat.