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johnlawrenceaspden comments on The Martial Art of Rationality - Less Wrong
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Comments (38)
Why has it been so unique? Surely there are plenty of high-profile predictions one can make using the same Bayesian techniques? (Or one can simply ask gwern, who is apparently well calibrated after a thousand or so recorded predictions.)
Well actually I was just wondering about that.
What other claims like 'Amanda Knox is innocent' can we make, in the sense that (a) they're counter common thinking (b) we're pretty sure we're right (c) there's likely to be a resolution in our favour soon?
The Amanda Knox thing was a surprising prediction that came true. More of those would be neat.