royf comments on Why truth? And... - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 27 November 2006 01:49AM

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Comment author: royf 28 May 2012 04:46:45AM *  2 points [-]

"If the iron approaches your face, and you believe it is hot, and it is cool, the Way opposes your fear. If the iron approaches your face, and you believe it is cool, and it is hot, the Way opposes your calm."

This quote conflates "true beliefs" and what we may call "correct beliefs". True beliefs are ones which assign high probability to the truth, i.e. the actual state of things. Correct beliefs are ones which follow from an agent's priors and observations. The former are objective, the latter subjective but not irrational. If the iron has been cool the last 107 times it has approached your face, but hot this 108th time, your belief that it is cool is correct but false (perhaps better terms are needed).

Also, a belief is not binary. You may be 99.8% sure that the iron is hot and still rationally fear it. A hot iron on your face is far more costly than a needless avoidance.