MarsColony_in10years comments on Why truth? And... - Less Wrong
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Perhaps this is a minor nitpick or technicality, but that's probably not the best example, because keeping the same probability estimate actually makes sense in this instance. To alter it would be a form of survivorship bias. This is because there is no way he could have have observed the opposite during the previous 10 attempts, since he would no longer be alive to have those memories if he had.