Are there any obvious bad consequences of turning out to be a not-great researcher? Are there any specific ones you are trying to avoid?
The worst one: I would eventually die. Immortality is my long-term goal. See: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/02/write-your-hypothetical-apostasy.html.
As for specific ones, I guess being broke, unemployed is my main concern.
You second part sound like a bit of all-or-nothing thinking. You don't necessarily have to be a great researcher to remain employed and not broke. Do you have a rough idea of what wages you would require for your living expenses?
I graduated from high school and wish to further my education formally by studying for a bachelor's degree in order to become a medical researcher. I could, for instance, take two different academic paths:
Study Medicine at undergraduate level and then do a postdoctoral fellowship.
Study Biochemistry at undergraduate level, then study for a PhD at graduate level, and finally do a postdoctoral fellowship.
Since I will do these studies in Europe, they each take approximately the same amount of time, namely 6 to 8 years.
Do I want to do treat patients? No, I do not. But I am considering Medicine because it can be a buffer against my own mediocrity: in case I turn out to be a below average scientist, I will be screwed royally. From my personal job shadowing experience, Medicine, on the other hand, requires mere basic intellectual traits, primarily the ability to memorize heaps of information. And those I think I have. To do world-class research though I'd have to be an intellectual heavyweight, and of that I'm not so sure.
How do I decide what path to follow?
The reason I'm asking you strangers for advice is because I evidently have biases, such as the pessimism/optimism bias or the Dunning–Kruger effect, that impair my ability to reason clearly; and people who know me personally are likewise prone to make errors in advising me because of biases like, say, the Halo effect. (Come to think of it, thinking that I can't become an above average scientist is in itself a self-defeating prophecy!)
Do you think that one ought to always seek advice from total strangers in order to be safeguarded from his/her own biases?
PS: I apologize if I should have written this in a specific thread. I'll delete my article if that's necessary.