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Risto_Saarelma comments on What are your rules of thumb? - Less Wrong
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Use the amount of unobvious subtleties involved in a subject you know very well to remind you of the unobvious subtleties that are probably present in the subject you don't know very well.
This is a great argument for learning some subject well regardless of what the subject is. A related point is that knowing a subject well exposes you to the idea of long inferential distances.
Thanks for putting it far more eloquently then I my brain had