What are your rules of thumb?

DataPacRat

I'm not as smart as I like to think I am. Knowing that, I've gotten into a habit of trying to work out as many general principles as I can ahead of time, so that when I actually need to think of something, I've already done as much of the work as I can.

What are your most useful cached thoughts?

A few of the rules-of-thumb I've already pre-cached include:

"Stay classy". Assume that whatever social interactions I have are going to come back to me in twenty years, so try not to make my future self too embarrassed; be as polite and respectful as feasible.
"The rule of threes: for anything important, try to have at least three sources, including at least one under your own control". Adapted from some wilderness survival books, it also applies to anything from home emergency kits to internet access to news sources.
"Assume I'm more likely than not going to get the worse side of the bargain." There are lots of people who are better than me at haggling, negotiating, and social sciences - in fact, I'm almost certainly somewhere down on the lower half of the bell-curve. So if it's possible to be taken advantage of in a deal, then I'm probably the one who's going to get taken advantage of.
"Assume I'm more likely than not going to get the worse side of the bargain." Applied to the field of ethics; if an ethical system says that it's moral to shoot someone for stealing an ice cream, then I assume that someone is going to mistake me for having stolen it and try to shoot me; or, if it's supposedly moral for a rich man to charge a thousand dollars for a bottle of water, I assume I'm going to be the one crawling in from the desert.
"It behooves every man who values liberty of conscience for himself, to resist invasions of it in the case of others: or their case may, by change of circumstances, become his own." I'm quite willing to steal ideas, including this phrasing of enlightened self-interest by Thomas Jefferson. (But I don't want this to become just another quotes thread.)

That should be a reasonable but not overwhelming sample of the sorts of ideas I mean, and am hoping to evoke more of with this post.

What are your most useful cached thoughts?

A few of the rules-of-thumb I've already pre-cached include:

"Stay classy". Assume that whatever social interactions I have are going to come back to me in twenty years, so try not to make my future self too embarrassed; be as polite and respectful as feasible.
"The rule of threes: for anything important, try to have at least three sources, including at least one under your own control". Adapted from some wilderness survival books, it also applies to anything from home emergency kits to internet access to news sources.
"Assume I'm more likely than not going to get the worse side of the bargain." There are lots of people who are better than me at haggling, negotiating, and social sciences - in fact, I'm almost certainly somewhere down on the lower half of the bell-curve. So if it's possible to be taken advantage of in a deal, then I'm probably the one who's going to get taken advantage of.
"Assume I'm more likely than not going to get the worse side of the bargain." Applied to the field of ethics; if an ethical system says that it's moral to shoot someone for stealing an ice cream, then I assume that someone is going to mistake me for having stolen it and try to shoot me; or, if it's supposedly moral for a rich man to charge a thousand dollars for a bottle of water, I assume I'm going to be the one crawling in from the desert.
"It behooves every man who values liberty of conscience for himself, to resist invasions of it in the case of others: or their case may, by change of circumstances, become his own." I'm quite willing to steal ideas, including this phrasing of enlightened self-interest by Thomas Jefferson. (But I don't want this to become just another quotes thread.)

That should be a reasonable but not overwhelming sample of the sorts of ideas I mean, and am hoping to evoke more of with this post.

Apply mental force to the problem. Amount and quality of thinking time seriously affects results.

I am often in situations where there would be a good result even if I did many stupid things. Recognize that success in those situation does not predict future success in more difficult situations.

Do the heavy lifting your own self.

Be willing to be right, even in the face of serious skepticism. [My father told me a story when I was a kid: In a parade, everyone was marching in line except one guy who was six feet to the right. His mother yelled, "Look, my son is the only one in the right place." I thought there was at least a nominal probability that was true. And still do.]

Be willing to be wrong and concede error. [In some quarters, there is much rejoicing when I am wrong about something. Hanging head in shame brings joy to others.]

Unreliable people are unreliable. Do not assume they operate in any way similar to ordinary, decent people. [I sometimes listen to people who I know are unreliable, and I think, "That person saying this adds significantly to its truth probability," when that assumption is known to be baseless. Much progress there, though.]

The fact that some results are unmeasured and not apparent to others known to you does not mean those results are meaningless. [Preventing future crime is good, even if you don't know what exact crime you've prevented.]

Want trumps all. [Super-high-output people virtually always are tenacious about Getting Stuff Done. Intelligence matters, but GSD is always critical.]

Do the heavy lifting your own self.

Can you elaborate on that one?

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What are your rules of thumb?

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