Qiaochu_Yuan comments on Open thread, February 15-28, 2013 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: David_Gerard 15 February 2013 11:17PM

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Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 16 February 2013 10:48:26PM *  9 points [-]

this gross example of irrationality

soren, please don't take this the wrong way, but based on what I've seen you post so far, you are not a strong enough rationalist to say things like this yet. You are using your existing knowledge of biases to justify your other biases, and this is dangerous.

Doctors have a limited amount of time and other resources. Any time and other resources they put into considering the possibility that a patient has a rare disease is time and other resources they can't put into treating their other patients with common diseases. In the absence of a certain threshold of evidence suggesting it's time to consider a rare disease (with a large space of possible rare diseases, most of the work you need to do goes into getting enough evidence to bring a given rare disease to your attention at all), it is absolutely completely rational to assume that patients have common diseases in general. .

Comment author: [deleted] 17 February 2013 07:09:26AM 2 points [-]

None taken, but how can you assess my level of rationality? When will I be enough rationalist to say things like that?

What bias did I use to justify another bias?

Again, testing a hypothesis when somebody's life is at stake is, I think, paramount to being a good doctor. What's the threshold of evidence a doctor should reckon?