gwern comments on The Power of Pomodoros - Less Wrong

48 Post author: elharo 14 May 2013 10:36AM

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Comment author: gwern 20 February 2013 02:16:37AM 14 points [-]

I think asking "what's the best way" is assuming it's just one thing. I see no reason it can't be the combination of a whole laundry list of things, just like "placebo effect" can be multiple things:

  1. motivational effect ("I have an awesome new strategy! THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING")
  2. regression to the mean ("I had an awful period, cast about for a new strategy, and simultaneously, things seem to be getting better! And of course correlation=causation")
  3. survivorship bias (if 10 people start a useless thing simultaneously, after a few weeks a good chunk of them probably still think it's working; a few months later, there will be many fewer survivors...)
  4. wishful thinking ("I had a bad few days - but they were exceptions and have a perfectly reasonable explanation X, Y, and Z, so I still have faith in this thing.")
  5. time delay before meta-akrasia kicks in ("That part of me hasn't figured out the right excuses and tactics to defeat the new system, so it's working - temporarily.")

I'm sure you could suggest some more.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 23 March 2013 06:13:34AM *  0 points [-]

It seems some of your ideas basically amount to "no techniques really work, and people only think they work because of random variation and measurement error and stuff". Not sure how plausible this is.

Comment author: gwern 23 March 2013 03:43:26PM 6 points [-]

It seems some of your ideas basically amount to "no techniques really work, and people only think they work because of random variation and measurement error and stuff". Not sure how plausible this is.

Currently, it's pretty darn plausible.