Larks comments on CEA does not seem to be credibly high impact - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Jonathan_Lee 21 February 2013 10:29AM

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Comment author: Jonathan_Lee 21 February 2013 11:40:35AM 2 points [-]

In that case, having a claim on every page of the GWWC site claiming that £112.8M have been pledged seems deceptive. 291 people have pledged, and [by a black box that doesn't trivially correspond to reality] that's become £112.8M. I know that at least 3 people in Cambridge have seen that statistic and promptly laughed at GWWC. The numbers are implausible enough that <5s Fermi estimates seem to refute it, and then the status of GWWC as somewhat effective rational meta-charity is destroyed. Why would someone trust GWWC's assessment of charities or likely impact over, say, GiveWell, if the numbers GWWC display are so weird and lacking in justification?

Comment author: Larks 22 February 2013 07:35:01PM *  3 points [-]

If someone has pledged to give 10% of X, and you estimate X to be about Y, I think it's not totally unreasonable to suggest Y*0.1 has been pledged, especially if that person doesn't disagree with your estimate of X.