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Elithrion comments on Utilitarianism twice fails - Less Wrong
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I feel this is sufficiently improbable that I'm willing to take the risk. That said, you raise a good point, and I'll make a note to check on this two months from now and see how it turned out (if it's -5 or higher, I'll consider my vote to be "wrong", if it's -6 or lower, I'll consider it to have been good).