Comment on Why Bayes? A Wise Ruling

Mon, 25 Feb 2013 21:32:08 GMT

The prior here (A has stolen B's baby) is actually quite low.

Irrelevant, because it is certain that one of them attempted to steal the other's baby: the question is whether it was by a midnight baby-swap, or by bearing false witness. What's your prior for the likelihood of attempting by each method conditioned on that an attempt was made? (Note that it could even be a conjunction- when the baby-swap fails, rush to the court and claim that she attempted a baby-swap!)

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