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Bugmaster comments on Why Bayes? A Wise Ruling - Less Wrong
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Solomon wasn't actually using Bayes here.
The prior here (A has stolen B's baby) is actually quite low. It just doesn't happen very often. Of course, Solomon actually has to consider some extra evidence (B has accused A of stealing her baby). Solomon (by your account) doesn't consider these things at all.
Solomon's analysis only considered the likelihood given a single test.
I know I'm nitpicking, but is the prior really that low in Solomon's case ? In our modern times, things like that almost never happen, but Solomon was living in Old Testament times (metaphorically speaking, seeing as the Solomon we're talking about here is just a character in a book). And the Old testament makes few legal distinctions between children and other kinds of property. Stealing them would still be a big deal, but hardly improbable.
OK, then maybe the prior is high. So what? The point is that Solomon didn't consider it. I'm not saying his test was useless or his decision was wrong. I'm saying that the word "Bayes" is being used as an applause light rather than for its meaning!
Yeah, that's why I said I was merely nitpicking.