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John_Maxwell_IV comments on Why Bayes? A Wise Ruling - Less Wrong
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Sorry, I have bad memory for details of this sort, only remember the abstract observation, which is recurrent enough that I have a cached phrase to identify and point out such situations ("This doesn't distinguish the alternatives!"). Could make up some examples, but I don't think it's useful for clarification in this case, and it won't provide further evidence for the existence of the issue.
I have a theory that everyone does this, and it's a way for our brains to save space somehow. Just keep track of the rate at which things tend to occur instead of recording and cataloging every experience.