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pinyaka comments on Decision Theory FAQ - Less Wrong
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Easy explanation for the Ellsberg Paradox: We humans treat the urn as if it was subjected to two kinds of uncertainties.
Somehow, we prefer to chose the "truly random" option. I think I can sense why: when it's "truly random", I know no potentially hostile agent messed up with me. I mean, I could chose "red" in situation A, but then the organizers could have put 60 blue balls just to mess with me!
Put it simply, choosing "red" opens me up for external sentient influence, and therefore risk being outsmarted. This particular risk aversion sounds like a pretty sound heuristic.
Yes, exactly, and in our modern marketing-driven culture, one almost expects to be gamed by salesmen or sneaky game-show hosts. In this culture, its a prudent, even 'rational' response.