crazy88 comments on Decision Theory FAQ - Less Wrong

52 Post author: lukeprog 28 February 2013 02:15PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 04 April 2013 04:09:28AM 0 points [-]

The strategy I have been considering in my attempt to prove a paradox inconsistent is to prove a contradiction using the problem formulation.

This seems like a worthy approach to paradoxes! I'm going to suggest the possibility of broadening your search slightly. Specifically, to include the claim "and this is paradoxical" as one of the things that can be rejected as producing contradictions. Because in this case there just isn't a paradox. You take the one box, get rich and if there is a decision theory that says to take both boxes you get a better theory. For this reason "Newcomb's Paradox" is a misnomer and I would only use "Newcomb's Problem" as an acceptable name.

In Newcomb's problem, suppose each player uses a fair coin flip to decide whether to one-box or two-box. Then Omega could not have a sustained correct prediction rate above 50%. But the problem formulation says Omega does; therefore the problem must be inconsistent.

Yes, if the player is allowed access to entropy that Omega cannot have then it would be absurd to also declare that Omega can predict perfectly. If the coin flip is replaced with a quantum coinflip then the problem becomes even worse because it leaves an Omega that can perfectly predict what will happen but is faced with a plainly inconsistent task of making contradictory things happen. The problem specification needs to include a clause for how 'randomization' is handled.

Alternatively, Omega knew the outcome of the coin flip in advance; let's say Omega has access to all relevant information, including any supposed randomness used by the decision-maker. Then we can consider the decision to already have been made; the idea of a choice occurring after Omega has left is illusory (i.e. deterministic; anyone with enough information could have predicted it.)

Here is where I should be able to link you to the wiki page on free will where you would be given an explanation of why the notion that determinism is incompatible with choice is a confusion. Alas that page still has pretentious "Find Out For Yourself" tripe on it instead of useful content. The wikipedia page on compatibilism is somewhat useful but not particularly tailored to a reductionist decision theory focus.

In this case of the all-knowing Omega, talking about what someone should choose after Omega has left seems mistaken. The agent is no longer free to make an arbitrary decision at run-time, since that would have backwards causal implications; we can, without restricting which algorithm is chosen, require the decision-making algorithm to be written down and provided to Omega prior to the whole simulation. Since Omega can predict the agent's decision, the agent's decision does determine what's in the box, despite the usual claim of no causality. Taking that into account, CDT doesn't fail after all.

There have been attempts to create derivatives of CDT that work like that. That replace the "C" from conventional CDT with a type of causality that runs about in time as you mention. Such decision theories do seem to handle most of the problems that CDT fails at. Unfortunately I cannot recall the reference.

I would love to hear from someone in further detail on these issues of consistency. Have they been addressed elsewhere? If so, where?

I'm not sure which further details you are after. Are you after a description of Newcomb's problem that includes the details necessary to make it consistent? Or about other potential inconsistencies? Or other debates about whether the problems are inconsistent?

Comment author: crazy88 04 April 2013 04:47:14AM 0 points [-]

There have been attempts to create derivatives of CDT that work like that. That replace the "C" from conventional CDT with a type of causality that runs about in time as you mention. Such decision theories do seem to handle most of the problems that CDT fails at. Unfortunately I cannot recall the reference.

You may be thinking of Huw Price's paper available here