wedrifid comments on Outside the Laboratory - Less Wrong
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The universe doesn't care about Alice's intentions. The trials give information and that information would have been the same even if the trials were run because a rock fell on Alice's keyboard when she wasn't watching.
Yes, he does.
Here is where the mistake starts creeping in. You are setting up "biased data collection" to mean selective reporting. Cherry picking the trials that succeed while discarding trials that do not. But in the case of Alice the evidence is all being considered.
The necessary claim is "continuing until 3 successes are achieved does not produce biased data", which is true.
This is a question that is empirically testable. Run a simulation of agents that try to guess, say, which of a set of weighted dice are in use. Pit your 'care what Alice thinks' agents against the bayesian agent. Let them bet among themselves. See which one ends up with all the money.