The popularity of anthropic reasoning varies, but it may be worth mentioning that historical data available to us here on Earth may be -completely meaningless- from a disaster probability perspective. Your being here to consider disasters rules out certain disasters having happened at all; it also rules out certain disasters happening at certain times.

It could also make the data meaningless in the other direction; it may be that intelligence is extremely unlikely without near-miss cataclysms allowing additional evolutionary passes/additional time spent in evolution at certain evolutionary stages; the shortest route to large-scale life may be an evolutionary dead end as far as intelligence goes.