Jake_Witmer comments on Politics is the Mind-Killer - Less Wrong
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Yes, that's a good point. And it engages the discussion then, about cost/benefit of protecting against various risks. I'm glad you brought it up. Defense against all sorts of violent crime is a variable that a lot of people place fairly high in importance, as per the excellent theoretical discussions in the book "Unintended Consequences" and on the website http://www.john-ross.net A great many people place the purchase of defensive weaponry and minimal skills training at least somewhere on their "significant benefit" and "relatively insignificant cost" (worth pursuing to minimum competency) expenditure hierarchies. This is why there are so many CCW holders.
Incidentally, I believe many people make this valuation because the CCW and defensive capability serves a purpose along a hierarchy: It defends against the local mugger, the significantly worse threat of the local rapist, the significantly worse threat of the traveling serial murderer, and the significantly worse threat of the democidal goon in a uniform who says "get on the truck, now."
That's true. But if the numbers of carjackings in my vicinity dramatically increased, and the people in my vicinity didn't seem interested in somehow defending against them, I'd be somewhat alarmed, and I'd notice a survival handicap in them. Especially if I tried to convince several of them to take some sort of precaution (move away, get a more secure car, get a gun, etc...) and they ignored me, and then they were carjacked and killed. Similarly, if the visible prevalence (evidence) of carjackings rises above reasonable levels in their immediate vicinity.
But I've prioritize discussion about democide and politics because it's killing the greatest benevolent force mankind has ever known (the North American free(r) market), and it's on a historically significant cycle that indicates it's going to kill large numbers of "us." Large numbers of "us" (certain demographics of "us" anyway) are already in prison, and lots of people I've met have failed to bring projects to market because of regulatory barriers to entry into the market. Moreover, there are many "Ominous Parallels" to the collapse of the Weimar, to the collapse of our own republic.
So, many people believe that there's nothing they can do to reverse the course of politics, so they deprioritize it, even though history and economic patterns indicate it's an immense threat. Moreover, the individual indicators of the immense threat are mostly here in the USA, right now: 1) A central bank, and pre-runaway inflation (with enough outstanding currency floating around to cause an inflationary crash) 2) The passage of the NDAA, an analogue of Hitler's Enabling Acts, and of the loss of the single largest limit on government power.
So the alarms are there, but the cost of doing anything appears very high. (People don't know what to do.) Now, their inaction is legitimate if learning what to do is cost prohibitive, and then the work afterward is very difficult. (Like the high cost of becoming a martial arts master, rather than the low cost and "almost as good" nature of buying a pistol.)
But my message is that that's not the case. Simply getting everyone on the same page with jury rights education, and a few simple activist memes (for instance, at the lesswrong.com meetups) would go a long, long, long way to defusing the problem, engaging the problem, and agitating for a very good solution. It's relatively low cost, and significantly high benefit.
Moreover, some threats are system-wide and relatively common. Systemic human threats to other humans are also often driving by observable economic incentives, or political shifts.
As an analogy to your example: I'm not going to worry much about meteor strikes, even though there are people who are right now saying that "Meteor strikes are an existential risk, and we should allocate energy, time and effort to setting up a standing defense against them." ...Because there are other ongoing risks that appear to be greater than meteor strikes.
However, when such a person says "the risk of meteor strikes has tripled in the past month, for these three reasons," and I ask two or three more astronomers not known for being concerned with the issue, and they agree, then I think it's time for me to allocate some brainspace to assessing the risk of meteor strike. Maybe I ask ten more experts and then ask them to direct me to astronomers with dissenting opinions.
One very significant part of my argument is that There are no experts in this field, because resisting tyranny is not a "field." Politics selects for the corrupted, once the system is corrupted. The law that once produced abolitionists (before the licensing of lawyers) is now licensed, and subject to the same perverse incentives. If you go down the list of potential preventers of tyranny, you find that with technology, when sociopaths get in control and make a science of control, they can close of most avenues of effective resistance, systemwide.
A few are left, and I suggest that people here prioritize learning about them, rather than grow more and more similar (in identity and situation) to the Jews of 1937 Germany.
In my travels, and self-directed education, I've found information about the jury to be an immensely rewarding area of study. I'd like to call your attention to the subject. Here's the website of the Fully Informed Jury Association The information there is not "organized for quickest assimilation and adoption," but it is fairly complete. For a quick overview, this essay is optimal: A History of Jury Nullification
You seem to be asserting that people in general care less about politics than they should. I would challenge that assertion; it seems unlikely on the face of it.
As noted in OP, we had much more impact on politics (and its close neighbor, tribal signalling) in the ancestral environment than we do now, and it was much more directly a matter of life-and-death. Thus, we are hard-wired to care about politics to a greater extent than we should.
You're new here, and so you're not used to our community norms - in those cases, we try to cut people some slack. But it really seems to me that you're not ready to be making contributions; try to restrict yourself to asking questions that might further your understanding of rationality. You appear to be incapable of seeing that your enemies are not evil aliens - you describe communists as 'idiots', as though there is no way an intelligent, well-meaning person could believe that communism is a good system of governance*. I shall refer you to this chestnut from G.K.Chesterton:
So it is with opposing viewpoints. Policy debates should not appear one-sided. If you do not understand how an intelligent, well-meaning person can have a position, and it's a position that lots of people actually hold, then you do not understand the position yet.
If you really want to post about politics rather than rationality, there are plenty of forums for that - many more than there are for rationality. If you do continue to post here, I would be very grateful if you made your comments short, to-the-point, and on-topic.
*As a minor footnote, note that what you were really commenting on is people's responses to one question on an informal survey, which many people criticized for not doing a great job of carving up the space of political ideology.
It sounds like you've thought a lot about this topic. Would you consider writing a discussion post on it ? You could call it something like "Politics as an existential risk". As far as I understand, most people here believe that politics is basically not worth talking about; you obviously disagree, so your post should provoke some interesting discussion.
Just in case the uncle comment by thomblake hasn't driven home the point, please don't do this.
What shouldn't I do, and why ?
It looks to me like we have two conflicting opinions:
I myself am on the fence about this, and I want to be persuaded one way or the other, because the fence is uncomfortable to sit on.
I meant Jake shouldn't write the post; sorry for the confusion. Note that the two positions you list could be compatible.
OIC, sorry for the misunderstanding.
True, but it could be a fine line to walk. If I believed that politics constitutes an x-risk, then, given the fact that most people do engage in politics in some way (even if merely by talking about it), I have a choice to make: do I engage in politics, or not ? If I engage, I might make matters worse; if I fail to engage, I might fail to make matters better and then it will be too late, because politics in its current state will destroy us all.
I can see parallels between this issue and AI research: engaging in AI research increases the probability of an unboxed UnFriendly AI converting us all into computronium (or paperclips); and yet, failing to engage decreases the probability that the AI will be Friendly (assuming that I'm good at AI and concerned about Friendliness).
I think a discussion of what, if any, political involvement is optimal could be a productive one. But I don't think the post that begins such a discussion should be written by someone whose mind has already been snatched by political ideology.
I agree with steven0461. It does sound like a potentially-interesting post, ideally with a mind-killing disclaimer at the top, but it should be written by someone sane. But then, I'm pretty sure political problems were already addressed in Bostrom's x-risk work, though they were some of the less-exciting ones (not likely to completely wipe out humanity or even civilization).
There's a chapter in Bostrom's Existential Risks by Caplan on the subject.
Sounds interesting, I'll put it on my to-read pile -- thanks !