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gwern comments on Just Lose Hope Already - Less Wrong
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"Probability of success if you continue: small. Probability of success if you give up: zero."
Doug, that's exactly what people say to me when I challenge them on why they buy lottery tickets. "The chance of winning is tiny, but if I don't buy a ticket, the chance is zero."
I can't think of one single case in my experience when the argument "It has a small probability of success, but we should pursue it, because the probability if we don't try is zero" turned out to be a good idea. Typically it is an excuse not to confront the flaws of a plan that is just plain unripe. You know what happens when you try a strategy with a tiny probability of success? It fails, that's what happens.
The Simpsons gave us the best advice: "Can't win, don't try."
Er ... isn't that the argument for cryonics?
And scientific research!
If you define success as "increased knowledge" instead of "new useful applications," then the probability of success for doing scientific research is high (i.e. >75%).
For individual experiments, it is often low, depending on the field.
You increase your knowledge every time you do an experiment. Just as you do every time you ask a question in Guess Who? At the very worst you discover that you asked a stupid question or that your opponent gives unreliable answers.
The relevant probability is p(benefits>costs) not p(benifits>0).
Reading through the context confirms that the relevant probability is p(increased knowledge). I have no specified position on whether the knowledge gained is sufficient to justify the expenditure of effort.
Indeed. I forgot. Oops.
Often it clearly isn't; so don't do that sort of research.
Don't spend $200 million trying to determine if there are a prime number of green rocks in Texas.