Pavitra comments on AI prediction case study 2: Dreyfus's Artificial Alchemy - Less Wrong

11 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 12 March 2013 11:07AM

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Comment author: IlyaShpitser 12 March 2013 03:52:03PM *  12 points [-]

Of course "never" is testable. The way to falsify is to exhibit a counterexample. "Human beings will never design a heavier than air flying machine" (Lord Kelvin, 1895), "a computer will never beat the human world champion in chess," etc. All falsified, therefore, all testable. If anything, an infinite horizon statement like "never" is more vulnerable to falsification, and therefore should get more "scientific respect."

Comment author: Pavitra 13 March 2013 10:06:20AM 2 points [-]

It's only testable in one direction -- if you like, "never" is testable but "ever" isn't. I don't have a formal argument to hand, but it seems vaguely to me that a hypothesis preferably-ought to be falsifiable both ways.