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Larks comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong
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It's worth noting that a 1 in a million prior of a charity being extraordinarily effective isn't that unreasonable: there are over 1 million 501(c)(3) organizations in the U.S. alone, and presumably a large fraction of these are charities, and presumably most of them are not extraordinarily effective.
(I'm not claiming that you argue that it is unreasonable, I'm just including the data here for others to refer to.)
Ok, but if that's your reference class, "isn't a donkey sanctuary" counts as evidence you can update on. It seems there's large classes of charities we can be confident will not be extraordinarily effective, and these don't include FHI, MIRI etc.
Yes. There's a choice as to what to put into the prior and what to put into the likelihood. This makes it more difficult to make claims like "this number is a reasonable prior and this one is not". Instead, one has to specify the population the prior is about, and this in turn affects what likelihood ratios are reasonable.