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GuySrinivasan comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong
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Good post. Asking "okay, how sensitive is Karnofsky's counterargument to the size of the priors?" and actually answering that question was very worthwhile IMO.
Your post was funded by MIRI. Can you tell us what they asked? Was it "evaluate Karnofsky's argument", "rebut this post", "check the sensitivity of the argument to the priors' size and expand on it", "see how much BA affects our estimates", or what?
The project was initially described as synthesizing some of the comments on Karnofsky's post into a response mentioning counterintuitive implications of the approach, or into whichever synthesis of responses I thought was accurate.
Confirmed. (I supervised the project.)