MugaSofer comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong
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I'm surprised this post doesn't at least mention temporal discounting. Even if it's somewhat unpopular in utilitarian circles, it's sufficiently a part of mainstream assessments of the future and of basic human psychology that I would think its effects on astronomical waste (and related) arguments should at the very least be considered.
If you're interested, see: Cowen, Caring about the Distant Future.