pinyaka comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong
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I got a different updated value ratio in part 2. If my calculations are wrong, would someone correct me?
V = Value; A = Analysis predicted value
Prior Probabilities:
Analysis Result Probabilities:
Accurate analysis results:
Inaccurate analysis results:
Posterior Probabilities:
So,
So the ratio goes from 50:1 to 80:54 unless I'm off somewhere. I'm just starting to learn this stuff so any feedback will be welcome.
EDIT: formatting
DOUBLE EDIT: I realize this isn't the point of the article and has no bearing on the conclusion. This was an exercise in how to update an EV for me.
"50:4" in the post refers to "P(V=1|A=100)*1 : P(V=100|A=100)*100", not "EV(A=1) : EV(A=100)". EV(A=1) is irrelevant, since we know that A is in fact 100.
I think this confused me:
I see that. Thanks.