private_messaging comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong
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To be really clear, the problem with Pascal's Mugging is that even after eliminating infinity as a coherent scenario, any simplicity prior which defines simplicity strictly over computational complexity will apparently yield divergent returns for aggregative utility functions when summed over all probable scenarios, because the material size of possible scenarios grows much faster than their computational complexity (Busy Beaver function or just tetration).
The problem with Pascal's Wager on the other hand is that it shuts down an ongoing conversation about plausibility by claiming that it doesn't matter how small the probability is, thus averting a logically polite duty to provide evidence and engage with counterarguments.
Pascal's Mugging != Pascal's Wager. This is really clear in the grandparent which explicitly distinguishes them, so I'm interpreting the above as willful misinterpretation from a known troller and deleting it.