private_messaging comments on Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (89)
That seems overly specific. There are many other ways in which priors assigned to highly speculative propositions may not be low enough, or when impact of other available actions on a highly speculative scenario be under-evaluated.
To me, Pascal's Wager is defined by a speculative scenario for which there exist no evidence, which has high enough impact to result in actions which are not based on any evidence, despite the uncertainty towards speculative scenarios.
How THE HELL does the above (ok, I didn't originally include the second quotation, but still) constitute confusion of Pascal's Wager and Pascal's Mugging, let alone "willful misinterpretation" ?