Note also that a crazy mugger could demand $10 or else 10^30 people outside the matrix will die, and then argue that you should rationally trust him 100% so the figure is 10^29 lives/$ , or argue that it is 90% certain that those people will die because he's a bit uncertain about the danger in the alternate worlds, or the like. It's not about the probability which mugger estimates, it's about the probability that the typical payer estimates.