TheOtherDave comments on Critiques of the heuristics and biases tradition - Less Wrong

18 Post author: lukeprog 18 March 2013 11:49PM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 20 March 2013 12:36:24AM 4 points [-]

Somebody flips a coin 100 times. It's come up heads each time. What are the odds it comes up heads on the 101st throw? If you're doing a probability problem, the answer is 50%.

If the coin is fair, the answer is 50%... but what are the odds that the coin is fair, given that it's come up heads 100 times?