Unnamed comments on Critiques of the heuristics and biases tradition - Less Wrong

18 Post author: lukeprog 18 March 2013 11:49PM

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Comment author: Unnamed 20 March 2013 12:58:37AM 2 points [-]

Eliezer's post Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down) also covers some of the research showing that the conjunction fallacy is not just due to misunderstandings.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 20 March 2013 10:00:53PM 1 point [-]

It could be in part due to training.

Reyna & Brainerd's Fuzzy-trace Theory research suggested that the conjunction fallacy gets more common with age.

And given that some of my guess-the-teacher's-password heuristics more or less directly invoke conjunction fallacy (Given A, B, C, and D, where D is A+B, D is more likely correct than either A or B), I'm inclined to suspect that education might be strongly reinforcing the bias.