army1987 comments on Critiques of the heuristics and biases tradition - Less Wrong

18 Post author: lukeprog 18 March 2013 11:49PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 20 March 2013 06:03:59PM *  0 points [-]

I never took any test with that question with “a coin 100 times”, but I did have one with red/black on a roulette wheel (which I assume would be much harder to fudge than a coin) ten (IIRC) times. (And I answered 18/37 -- the zero is neither black nor red).

Comment author: OrphanWilde 20 March 2013 07:27:18PM 1 point [-]

You forgot the 00, although it depends on whether you're playing European or US roulette.

Actually, I love roulette. And yes, it's much harder to fudge than a coin; the best that can be managed would be better described as a "nudge" - the timing of the dealer's throw can make a tiny % of difference.

The skill necessary to land the ball exactly where the dealer wants it would be superhuman, but as my dad commented (describing practicing with throwing knives and throwing stars), practice has a tendency to make you luckier. (Yes, my homeschooling lessons involved throwing knives.)