OrphanWilde comments on Critiques of the heuristics and biases tradition - Less Wrong

18 Post author: lukeprog 18 March 2013 11:49PM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 20 March 2013 06:05:23PM 6 points [-]

Given 2^100 odds, it's more likely the person flipping the coin is using the double-headed quarter I tossed into a wishing well in Mexico ten years previously than that the flips were entirely natural.

It works out to 6.338*10^29 against, assuming we're not favoring a series of heads over tails. At those odds, a casting mistake resulting in a chunk of ferrous material being embedded in the coin and a magnetic anomaly caused by the alignment of the microwave and the toaster and the fact that the television happens to be tuned to channel 29 with a volume setting of 9 start to become viable contenders as explanations.