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Elithrion comments on Personal Evidence - Superstitions as Rational Beliefs - Less Wrong
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Forget the whole philosophy and meta side of this. If the events you describe really happened, then there is a sneaky, insane and probably dangerous human around. If this were a B-movie horror, you would search the house alone and unarmed, find a concealed door in the "alien geometry" basement room, open it and be ambushed. Tread carefully. If a key goes missing and then reappears, it has been copied. If a previous occupant's possessions turn up mysteriously, then the lurker has been around for awhile. Hidden cameras are a useful tool. In any case, it is dangerous to tip him off that you know, unless you are ready to act (as in, bring in police, conduct a thorough search with special equipment, and change all locks) immediately.
Either that or maybe either OrphanWilde or his sister or someone else close to him really enjoys messing with everyone and making it seem that the house is haunted.
Especially to mess with one of those people intolerant of our beliefs in the supernatural, who always have to go about how this or that can easily be dismissed if only you were rational. How ironical could it be then to get one to believe in a haunted house because it was the rational thing to do given the "evidence"?
That sounds like a restatement of the parent comment, with different connotation.
I meant "someone close to him" in a relationship, not a spatial, sense (so, "other family member or friend he knows about"). Which I guess is still kind of just a different connotation, but I think one worth noticing separately from the "crazy lurker who's been around for a while" hypothesis.
I see. Thanks for clarifying.
Though, the other stuff in the post, and his other comments on the thread, really make it seem to me to be related to the house rather than to him, or his friends.