CronoDAS comments on Personal Evidence - Superstitions as Rational Beliefs - Less Wrong
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Objectively, no; as previously mentioned, it shouldn't surprise us that somebody won the lottery. Subjectively, yes; I would certainly update my odds that something other than pure chance is at work if I happened to win the lottery.
And simulation is coming from Robin Hanson's assertion that if you're an important person in the world, you should probably update your priors to suggest you are being simulated; it's a related argument. If the world is ever capable of simulating individual people, any given important person is more likely a simulation than the real thing - so, given that I'm not particularly important, I can probably assume I'm not simulated, unless something exceptionally unlikely happens to me. But if I were, say, Obama, maybe I -should- think I'm living in a simulation. From the outside, there's a president of the United States, so it's not particularly unusual that -somebody- is the president of the United States. From the inside, it would be unusual that -I- am the president of the United States. Same thing.
"Important" people in most MMOs tend to be NPCs. You can't have every PC be King of Orgrimmar or whatever...