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AspiringRationalist comments on Tactics against Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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I've always understood the Kirk solution as the correct answer to the actual Pascal's Wager:
God doesn't value self-modification. God values faith. One of the properties of faith is that self-modification cannot create faith that did not previously exist.
In short, faith is not a kind of belief.
Not that this argument addresses the problems discussed in the post.
You seem to be privileging the Abrahimic hypothesis. Of the vast space of possible gods, why would you expect that variety to be especially likely?
Hell is an abrahamic (Islamic/christian only I think) thing. To the extent that we should automatically discount inferences about a God's personality based on christianity/Islam we should also discount the possibility of hell.