army1987 comments on Solved Problems Repository - Less Wrong
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The calories-in calories-out model is attractive, but it doesn't appear to be all that accurate, or at least it's incomplete. The body responds differently to different foods. They might have different effects on various hormones (e.g. the ones that regulate hunger), and they might be broken down and redistributed in different ways. In one study (Kekwick and Pawan), three groups of people were put on 1,000 calorie diets of 90% fat resp. 90% protein resp. 90% carbs. The first group lost 0.9 lbs / day, the second group lost 0.6 lbs / day, and the third group gained 0.24 lbs / day. (I don't know to what extent the study controlled for exercise but I think it's safe to assume that the difference in the amount of exercise that each group did wasn't large enough to explain these results.) As Tim Ferriss puts it in The 4-Hour Body:
In the context of solving the specific problem of fat loss, one goal is not to lose muscle, and what you're eating should affect how easy it is to target fat and retain muscle as well.
And, of course, diets don't work if they can't be maintained. The fact that different foods affect the hormones that regulate hunger differently (some foods even make you hungrier!) means that different diets, even with the same number of calories, require different amounts of willpower to maintain.
So long as your diet isn't nearly that lopsided, IME (YMMV) the calories-in calories-out is a more decent first-order approximation than many people realize. See also The Hacker's Diet. Second-order effects exist, but they're second-order effects.
That's basically the point.
Places way too much focus on losing weight. See parent; losing weight by losing muscle mass isn't desirable.
Your claim here hinges on the presumption that CI and CO are the only first-order effects, which is almost certainly false. Age, body fat proportion, maximal oxygen uptake, etc., are plausible candidates that I've seen in mathematical weight models.
In my experience, these tend to be taken into effect when calculating the "calories out" part of the equation. By what mechanism were you thinking that these mattered, that's not "calories out"?