hairyfigment comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (5th thread, March 2013) - Less Wrong

27 Post author: orthonormal 01 April 2013 04:19PM

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Comment author: hairyfigment 01 April 2013 09:34:31PM 13 points [-]

with 100% certainty, no less, Bayes be damned

Is this an April Fool's joke? He says nothing of the kind. The post which comes closest to this explicitly says that it could be wrong, but "the rational probability is pretty damned small." And counting the discovery of time-turners, he's named at least two conceivable pieces of evidence that could change that number.

What do you mean when you say you "just don't put nearly as much confidence in it as you do"?

Comment author: MugaSofer 12 April 2013 07:05:57PM -1 points [-]

Maybe it's a reference to the a priori nature of his arguments for MW? Or something? It's a strange claim to make, TBH.