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PrawnOfFate comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (5th thread, March 2013) - Less Wrong
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Why would Clippy want to hit the top of the Kohlberg Hierarchy? You don't get more paperclips for being there.
Clippy's ideas of importance are based on paperclips. The most important vaues are those which lead to the acquiring of the greatest number of paperclips.
"Clippy" meaning something carefully designed to have unalterable boxed-off values wouldn't...by definition.
A likely natural or artificial superintelligence would, for the reasons already given. Clippies aren'tt non-existent in mind-space..but they are rare, just because there are far more messy solutions there than neat ones. So nature is unlikely to find them, and we are unmotivated to make them.
A perfectly designed Clippy would be able to change its own values - as long as changing its own values led to a more complete fulfilment of those values, pre-modification. (There are a few incredibly contrived scenarios where that might be the case). Outside of those few contrived scenarios, however, I don't see why Clippy would.
(As an example of a contrived scenario - a more powerful superintelligence, Beady, commits to destroying Clippy unless Clippy includes maximisation of beads in its terminal values. Clippy knows that it will not survive unless it obeys Beady's ultimatum, and therefore it changes its terminal values to optimise for both beads and paperclips; this results in more long-term paperclips than if Clippy is destroyed).
The reason I asked, is because I am not understanding your reasons. As far as I can tell, you're saying that a likely paperclipper would somehow become a non-paperclipper out of a desire to do what is right instead of a desire to paperclip? This looks like a very poorly made paperclipper, if paperclipping is not its ultimate goal.
I said "natural or artificial superinteligence", not a paperclipper. A paperclipper is a highly unlikey and contrived kind of near-superinteligence that combines an extensive ability to update with a carefully walled of set of unupdateable terminal values. It is not a typical or likely [ETA: or ideal] rational agent, and nothing about the general behaviour of rational agents can be inferred from it.
So... correct me if I'm wrong here... are you saying that no true superintelligence would fail to converge to a shared moral code?
How do you define a 'natural or artificial' superintelligence, so as to avoid the No True Scotsman fallacy?
I'm saying such convergence has a non negligible probability, ie moral objectivism should not be disregarded.
As one that is too messilly designed to have a rigid distinction between terminal and instrumental values, and therefore no boxed-off unapdateable TVs. It's a structural definition, not a definition in terms of goals.
So. Assume a paperclipper with no rigid distinction between terminal and instrumental values. Assume that it is super-intelligent and super-rational. Assume that it begins with only one terminal value; to maximize the number of paperclips in existence. Assume further that it begins with no instrumental values. However, it can modify its own terminal and instrumental values, as indeed it can modify anything about itself.
Am I correct in saying that your claim is that, if a universal morality exists, there is some finite probability that this AI will converge on it?
Universe does not provide you with a paperclip counter. Counting paperclips in the universe is unsolved if you aren't born with exact knowledge of laws of physics and definition of the paperclip. If it maximizes expected paperclips, it may entirely fail to work due to not-low-enough-prior hypothetical worlds where enormous numbers of undetectable worlds with paperclips are destroyed due to some minor actions. So yes, there is a good chance paperclippers are incoherent or are of vanishing possibility with increasing intelligence.
That sounds like the paperclipper is getting Pascal's Mugged by its own reasoning. Sure, it's possible that there's a minor action (such as not sending me $5 via Paypal) that leads to a whole bunch of paperclips being destroyed; but the probability of that is low, and the paperclipper ought to focus on more high-probability paperclipping plans instead.
Well, that depends to choice of prior. Some priors don't penalize theories for the "size" of the hypothetical world, and in those, max. size of the world grows faster than any computable function of length if it's description, and when you assign improbability depending to length of description, basically, it fails. Bigger issue is defining what the 'real world paperclip count' even is.
Right. Perhaps it should maximise the number of paperclips which each have a greater-than-90% chance of existing, then? That will allow it to ignore any number of paperclips for which it has no evidence.
Inside your imagination, you have paperclips, you have magicked a count of paperclips, and this count is being maximized. In reality, well, the paperclips are actually a feature of the map. Get too clever about it and you'll end up maximizing however you define it without maximizing any actual paperclips.