A Rational Altruist Punch in The Stomach

Neotenic

Very distant future times are ridiculously easy to help via investment. A 2% annual return adds up to a googol (10^100) return over 12,000 years, even if there is only a 1/1000 chance they will exist or receive it.

So if you are not incredibly eager to invest this way to help them, how can you claim to care the tiniest bit about them? How can you think anyone on Earth so cares? And if no one cares the tiniest bit, how can you say it is "moral" to care about them, not just somewhat, but almost equally to people now? Surely if you are representing a group, instead of spending your own wealth, you shouldn’t assume they care much.

So why do many people seem to care about policy that effects far future folk? I suspect our paternalistic itch pushes us to control the future, rather than to enrich it. We care that the future celebrates our foresight, not that they are happy.

In the comments some people gave counterarguments. For those in a rush, the best ones are Toby Ord's. But I didn't bite any of the counterarguments to the extent that it would be necessary to counter the 10^100. I have some trouble conceiving of what would beat a consistent argument a googol fold.

Things that changed my behavior significantly over the last few years have not been many, but I think I'm facing one of them. Understanding biological immortality was one, it meant 150 000 non-deaths per day. Understanding the posthuman potential was another. Then came the 10^52 potential lives lost in case of X-risk, or if you are conservative and think only biological stuff can have moral lives on it, 10^31. You can argue about which movie you'll watch, which teacher would be best to have, who should you marry. But (if consequentialist) you can't argue your way out of 10^31 or 10^52. You won't find a counteracting force that exactly matches, or really reduces the value of future stuff by

3 000 000 634 803 867 000 000 000 000 000 000 777 000 000 000 999 fold

Which is way less than 10^52

You may find a fundamental and qualitative counterargument "actually I'd rather future people didn't exist", but you won't find a quantitative one. Thus I spend a lot of time on X-risk related things.

Back to Robin's argument: so unless someone gives me a good argument against investing some money in the far future (and discovering some vague techniques of how to do it that will make it at least one in a millionth possibility) I'll set aside a block of money X, a block of time Y, and will invest in future people 12 thousand years from now. If you don't think you can beat 10^100, join me.

And if you are not in a rush, read this also, for a bright reflection on similar issues.

Robin Hanson wrote, five years ago:

Very distant future times are ridiculously easy to help via investment. A 2% annual return adds up to a googol (10^100) return over 12,000 years, even if there is only a 1/1000 chance they will exist or receive it.

So if you are not incredibly eager to invest this way to help them, how can you claim to care the tiniest bit about them? How can you think anyone on Earth so cares? And if no one cares the tiniest bit, how can you say it is "moral" to care about them, not just somewhat, but almost equally to people now? Surely if you are representing a group, instead of spending your own wealth, you shouldn’t assume they care much.

So why do many people seem to care about policy that effects far future folk? I suspect our paternalistic itch pushes us to control the future, rather than to enrich it. We care that the future celebrates our foresight, not that they are happy.

3 000 000 634 803 867 000 000 000 000 000 000 777 000 000 000 999 fold

Which is way less than 10^52

And if you are not in a rush, read this also, for a bright reflection on similar issues.

A flaw or trick in Robin's argument is talking about 12000 years as if that is the future that people care about. People concerned about AI and Global Warming make it a point that the harm comes, or at least is well on its way, within 100 years. 2% over 100 years is sort of crappy return, not game changing in anybody's imagination.

I wonder what the longest time that has passed between an investment aimed at a return in the far future and an actual return similar to what was expected in the far future? The few things I think of are cathedrals and universities. There are a few universities that are 1000 years old, do they qualify? I think not for these reasons: 1) the universities were not founded with the intention of a payoff 500 years or a 1000 years later, they were founded with the intention of getting value from them soon after they were founded. 2) The universities that have lasted 1000 years have been re-invested in episodically and massively over the 1000 years, so the return now from the original investment is probably quite a small part of their total present value.

And that's 1000 years, I am aware of NOTHING with the slightest hint of long term payoff from 1000 years ago. Look forward to being shown I'm wrong in comments, though :)

12000 years? Its a joke. 11,900 years after an AI with some real capacity is developed? Supposing I cared deeply about 12000 years from now, what "signal" would I have telling me how to invest for that time period that wouldn't be totally swamped by the noise of uncertainty and the interference of numerous possibilities?

This of course says nothing of an investment that pays a consistent or even an average of 2% over 12000 years. The fact that I can imagine such a thing does not suggest that its probability of existence is > 1.02^(-12000).

Benjamin Franklin bequeathed a reasonable sum of money (IIRC, 1000 pounds Stirling each to two cities) to get invested for two centuries. The fund is worth something like $5 million today. I don't recall the exact details, but it's a good past example of something like this.