The point isn't that there is a small random percentage chance of failure/success. Your tree doesn't have 1/1000 chance of growing to 12,000 feet, there are structural problems with the way the world works that make it functionally impossible. There are trees near ten thousand years old, none of which have grown anywhere near that tall, because the number we assign to "growth rate" is actually one of the very very many variables that affect which trees can exist and how they do so. Using a self-multiplying "Growth-rate" number to try to figure out how your investment fund is going to do in 12k years is ignoring just as many variables.
Robin Hanson wrote, five years ago:
In the comments some people gave counterarguments. For those in a rush, the best ones are Toby Ord's. But I didn't bite any of the counterarguments to the extent that it would be necessary to counter the 10^100. I have some trouble conceiving of what would beat a consistent argument a googol fold.
Things that changed my behavior significantly over the last few years have not been many, but I think I'm facing one of them. Understanding biological immortality was one, it meant 150 000 non-deaths per day. Understanding the posthuman potential was another. Then came the 10^52 potential lives lost in case of X-risk, or if you are conservative and think only biological stuff can have moral lives on it, 10^31. You can argue about which movie you'll watch, which teacher would be best to have, who should you marry. But (if consequentialist) you can't argue your way out of 10^31 or 10^52. You won't find a counteracting force that exactly matches, or really reduces the value of future stuff by
3 000 000 634 803 867 000 000 000 000 000 000 777 000 000 000 999 fold
Which is way less than 10^52
You may find a fundamental and qualitative counterargument "actually I'd rather future people didn't exist", but you won't find a quantitative one. Thus I spend a lot of time on X-risk related things.
Back to Robin's argument: so unless someone gives me a good argument against investing some money in the far future (and discovering some vague techniques of how to do it that will make it at least one in a millionth possibility) I'll set aside a block of money X, a block of time Y, and will invest in future people 12 thousand years from now. If you don't think you can beat 10^100, join me.
And if you are not in a rush, read this also, for a bright reflection on similar issues.