The premises in this argument aren't strong enough to support conclusions like that.
Sure. But the support for other parts of the perpetuity argument like long-term real returns aren't strong either. And a better model would take into account diseconomies of scale. Improbability needs to work both ways, or else you're just setting up Pascalian wagers...
Expropriation risks have declined strikingly, particularly in advanced societies,
They have?
and it's easy enough to describe scenarios in which the annual risk of expropriation falls to extremely low levels
Even easier to describe scenarios in which the risk spikes. How's the Middle East doing lately? Are the various nuclear powers like Russia and North Korea still on friendly terms with everyone, and nuclear war utterly unthinkable?
ETA: Weitzman on uncertainty about discount/expropriation rates.
This seems to be purely theoretical modeling which does not address my many disjunctive & empirical arguments above against the perpetuity strategy.
Robin Hanson wrote, five years ago:
In the comments some people gave counterarguments. For those in a rush, the best ones are Toby Ord's. But I didn't bite any of the counterarguments to the extent that it would be necessary to counter the 10^100. I have some trouble conceiving of what would beat a consistent argument a googol fold.
Things that changed my behavior significantly over the last few years have not been many, but I think I'm facing one of them. Understanding biological immortality was one, it meant 150 000 non-deaths per day. Understanding the posthuman potential was another. Then came the 10^52 potential lives lost in case of X-risk, or if you are conservative and think only biological stuff can have moral lives on it, 10^31. You can argue about which movie you'll watch, which teacher would be best to have, who should you marry. But (if consequentialist) you can't argue your way out of 10^31 or 10^52. You won't find a counteracting force that exactly matches, or really reduces the value of future stuff by
3 000 000 634 803 867 000 000 000 000 000 000 777 000 000 000 999 fold
Which is way less than 10^52
You may find a fundamental and qualitative counterargument "actually I'd rather future people didn't exist", but you won't find a quantitative one. Thus I spend a lot of time on X-risk related things.
Back to Robin's argument: so unless someone gives me a good argument against investing some money in the far future (and discovering some vague techniques of how to do it that will make it at least one in a millionth possibility) I'll set aside a block of money X, a block of time Y, and will invest in future people 12 thousand years from now. If you don't think you can beat 10^100, join me.
And if you are not in a rush, read this also, for a bright reflection on similar issues.