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RomeoStevens comments on Differential reproduction for men and women. - Less Wrong
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Comments (35)
Most of the data understandably only looks at acknowledged relationships.
Yup. So what sort of data could either support or make unlikely a 50% cuckoldry rate among ancestral societies? I'm not sure that even a genetic study would give good answers, so we may have to go with indirect evidence.
What's the cuckoldry rate now? Ooh, I found a blog post on it by Razib Kahn (just by googling "cuckoldry," actually). He also links to a paper that finds a bit of a decrease in "nonpaternity rates," and attributes it to widespread birth control (makes sense).
Here is a list of paternity studies. The best study is the modern German study because there was very little selection bias. But there are several surname studies showing <2% nonpaternity rates over centuries. Unfortunately the list lacks citations, though there are some in the comments.
How would you balance cuckoldry compared to other factors like getting killed? What are the rates of sterility for men vs. women in various eras?
Thanks for the Khan link. I'd heard a 10% cuckoldry rate myself, but he's got evidence that it's more like 1.5% to 5%.