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AlexSchell comments on I need help: Device of imaginary results by I J Good - Less Wrong
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Comments (18)
A problem with this is that humans often exhibit base rate neglect, and so may overestimate small probabilities in this sort of exercise .
I am not sure I understood you correctly.
Do you mean that since humans tend to overvalue weight of the evidence and undervalue how the hypothesis was likely in the first place, I could overestimate P(A|X) by not requiring enough evidence and deciding that P(A|E,X)=0.5 earlier than justified?
Exactly.