gwern comments on The Universal Medical Journal Article Error - Less Wrong

6 Post author: PhilGoetz 29 April 2014 05:57PM

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Comment author: gwern 08 April 2013 03:37:34PM 2 points [-]

of mistaken interpretation of a "failure to reject" result as confirmation of the null hypothesis, thereby privileging the null.

Isn't that a major criticism of NHST, that almost all users and interpreters of it reverse the conditionality - a fallacy/confusion pointed by Cohen, Gigerenzer, and almost every paper I cited there?

Comment author: Kindly 09 April 2013 11:24:25PM 1 point [-]

I think that's a separate mistake. This paper shows Pr[data|H0] > 0.05. The standard mistake you refer to switches this to falsely conclude Pr[H0|data] > 0.05. However, neither of these is remotely indicative of H0 being true.