Kindly comments on Fermi Estimates - Less Wrong
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Comments (104)
I've run meetups on this topic twice now. Every time I do, it's difficult to convince people it's a useful skill. More words about when estimation is useful would be nice.
In most exercises that you can find on Fermi calculations, you can also actually find the right answer, written down somewhere online. And, well, being able to quickly find information is probably a more useful skill to practice than estimation; because it works for non-quantified information too. I understand why this is; you want to be able to show that these estimates aren't very far off, and for that you need to be able to find the actual numbers somehow. But that means that your examples don't actually motivate the effort of practicing, they only demonstrate how.
I suspect the following kinds of situations are fruitful for estimation:
Others? Does anyone have examples of when Fermi calculations helped them make a decision?
The main use I put Fermi estimates to is fact-checking: when I see a statistic quoted, I would like to know if it is reasonable (especially if I suspect that it has been misquoted somehow).